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More Cautious
(Thu, 21 Aug 2008 07:08:57)
Taking more time to make a decision this morning, I waited until after the open to see what would win out for APWR -- closing Wednesday above the 13 day EMA for the first time in weeks which should cause some technical buying, or the market selloff predicted by futures prices.
The selloff won, and APWR price dove after being up in pre-market.
Now it was time to decide to wait until after the typical APWR selloff in midmorning, or not wait because APWR announced the earnings conference call would be Monday, only a 2-day notice!
I decided it was a nice setup with a lot of upward pressure in a market-selloff environment. My ideal buy-into-fear opportunity. If I'm wrong I have plenty of room to average down.
Related Stocks: APWR
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Morning Update
(Wed, 20 Aug 2008 08:08:14)
Returning to my old pattern, I added 0.35 to APWR's previous closing price as my selling point, coming up with a sell of 22.00, then bumped it down to 21.97 to avoid resistance at 22.00. The sell price was hit.
The dip that followed was small, only a few %, and not enough to get me back in yet. Price action in the mid morning to early afternoon doesn't interest me, so I'll check back in later in the day. I do always have a crazy-low bid entered at all times, usually around 7% to 10% under the morning high price.
*Edit for after-hours: I see my math was totally wrong this morning, to my benefit. I added 0.35 to my purchase price not to the previous day's close. Sigh.......perhaps it is better that I am not trading as often now, even though it worked to my benefit this time.
Related Stocks: APWR
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Update
(Mon, 18 Aug 2008 07:08:06)
In the morning the price didn't act as I expected, more like the APWR of old, so I decided to correct my holdings. I wasn't comfortable, and now I am. Due to leverage, I actually have the highest portfolio dollar value I've ever had. I should probably be concerned that using leverage has not bothered me in the slightest, like back in my dot-com trading days.
I plan on reentering at a lower price when convenient, assuming the APWR of old has returned and a 3% to 10% dip appears.
As I type this, a 4% pullback has occurred from the daily high.
Another reason for getting out -- freeing up cash for Tim Sykes' picks!
Today I followed Tim's FOUR bounce play with a small position. Figures I would hit the one out of 20 picks that lost money. I take comfort in the fact that I followed my rules and got out of the position when it didn't go as expected. The amount of money was small but the percentage was significant so my chart is going to look messy tomorrow.
At the end of the day I got back in APWR at a good price, about a 7% discount from the day's high.
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More Pirate Gold
(Sun, 17 Aug 2008 16:08:02)
Monday morning is now looking even more positive for APWR, with the discovery of several unannounced contracts on the Chinese website of APWR's acquired construction company. The links were posted by a member of the APWR Yahoo message board, and I spent some time reading the very challenging Chinese-to-English translations of the contract announcements on the website of the construction company, probably battling NBC Olympic reporters for bandwidth as I was downloading the pages. Thanks to the great treasure-hunting work of this member, this golden news is now available.
This appears to be yet more good news for APWR, most likely not to be announced in Western media until after the earnings audit is completed.
Related Stocks: APWR
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Coverage + Options Day
(Fri, 15 Aug 2008 07:08:02)
Today should be a theme-park worthy ride for APWR's price. August options expire today and Raymond James initiated coverage this morning at Strong Buy. Today marks the sixth out of the last nine trading days that the price crossed a profit point at which I would have usually sold. With my newly found discipline, I will hold through what is most likely going to be several solid gaining days.
My options trading friend bought options when the price was around 21.75ish, so now I have officially had influence on at least one trade that was not my own. He explained to me the MACD is crossing at several different time frames, and the price is right at the 13-day EMA, about to cross it. I nodded, pretending to understand. Add the positive news today and the nearing earnings announcement (no exact date yet), and next week is looking very bullish.
Related Stocks: APWR
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5 out of 7
(Wed, 13 Aug 2008 17:08:48)
Today makes the fifth out of the last seven trading days that APWR has had points I would have typically sold. I continue to hold with the belief that price will be closer to 25 soon. Tomorrow has a chance of being the day, based on today's volume and uptrending closing price. With APWR being unpredictable and me bullish on the stock, I would prefer to hold rather than miss the spike, which based on the last 7 days can be 15% within an hour.
I trust nothing I read about APWR anymore, with manipulators, pumpers, and bashers slinking along in the shadows at all times, undoubtedly with pockets full of boiler-room payoffs. Daily trading has become a carnival. TheStreet.com had a video interview saying if you follow APWR's daily price you may go crazy, and that is accurate.
To give you an idea of the lunacy, I called investor relations and received far more information than I felt was appropriate. Quite frankly I was amazed at the amount of information I received which I have found in no other source available to the public. I also fielded a phone call from a random person who tracked me down through a message board, who had even more information which I consider insider info. Had I acted on this person's information I would have a much better averaged price right now and a significant amount of guilt. Having a brother that is an intellectual property and patent attorney, I know when info has the potential to send me up the river like Martha Stewart. When I say carnival, I wasn't kidding.
For someone looking to get into APWR now, the best choice is to either wait until after the earnings report which appears to now be coming at the beginning of September, or buy and hold and don't watch daily prices.
Related Stocks: APWR
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A few things I know
(Sun, 10 Aug 2008 19:08:00)
Here are a few things I know:
1) Many people are smarter than me.
2) I've read one finance book in my life.
3) No company PR or bookkeeping can be trusted, especially small Chinese companies.
Given the above, the great returns I've been getting must be a fluke. I've broken every mainstream financial planning rule. I'm not diversified, I invest in high-risk stocks in a high-risk short term way, I follow Timothy Sykes who advocates a radical trading method, and I've even day-traded and used margin again.
Surely within weeks or months the universe will set things right and give me the financial walloping that I have coming. Then I will open the Yellow Pages, look under Financial Planner, and pay a nice fellow to manage my portfolio and underperform the market for the next 30 years.
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Rare Discipline
(Fri, 08 Aug 2008 13:08:55)
Somehow I have held through three points I would have usually sold, which has required some stronger discipline. I feel like APWR is once again building for an intense 10%+ run-up, and every time I have felt like this in the past, it has happened within a day or two. The volume pattern over the last month supports that view, as a few low volume days have typically been followed by a few high volume days that have run the price up 10% to 20%, which would be a price around $25.00. Bollinger bands point to a price closer to $25.00 soon as well.
Earnings are nearing and with no negative news at all and much positive news, the fundamental numbers of the company should also provide strong upward pressure. The chance of more news and/or another analyst initiating coverage is always present.
My judgement has been good so far. The only thing that could use improvement is my timing, but that has an element of luck to it, so I am refusing to allow imperfect timing to sway my judgement.
Related Stocks: APWR
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Pirate Ship in a Maelstrom
(Tue, 05 Aug 2008 17:08:38)
The maelstrom is APWR's swirling price action, and my Covestor account is the pirate ship. I'm not sure what to think about yesterday and today with APWR, however the end result would make any pirate happy. A chest of gold, mateys!
Once again I averaged down during the entire slide, but ran out of buying power near the bottom. The late afternoon recovery was truly remarkable, and I'm not sure why it was so extreme, but it recovered past my averaged price by over 3%, which I really did not expect. I thought I would be holding for weeks until earnings to see a profit. Perhaps false rumors of a stock dilution, plus the large overall market rally combined to amplify the usual price action.
Nothing makes me more frustrated than missing the bottom of a slide. I'm not sure why because I don't expect to call the bottom exactly, and yet I have the feelings that I should have hit the bottom anyway.
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Update
(Fri, 01 Aug 2008 12:08:50)
I had a tight stop on WEL at the 52-week high from the previous day (2.55), which hit early in the morning so lost a tiny bit on WEL after being up briefly. I was entertained by this new process of chart analysis, so it was worth it just for the lesson. Also, I am not afraid to fail as it adds to the entertainment.
Only mild interest in AMZN, DRYS, and APWR at the moment. I was hoping some large sell blocks would go through in APWR to hit a few crazy bids I have out there, but nobody is buying or selling much today.
At the end of the day I decided the current APWR price was decent, better than most of my recent initial entry points, even though the price action is acting very strangely the last few days. It feels like I am forcing a trade, but I am happy with the price and perfectly willing to average down again.
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Apologies to Followers
(Thu, 31 Jul 2008 14:07:30)
I apologize to all of my followers for having an impossible-to-follow portfolio. Anyone looking at my info for advice will either see no holdings, or see trades in one volatile anxiety-inducing stock.
Since my trading history can't be used as trading advice, the only thing I have to offer are brief moments of entertainment. I hope that is enough.
Today I added WEL, which Tony Ellis suggested on Tim Sykes' message board. Tony has had amazing success this past year. This one might not be the ideal Sykes-style setup but the chart and breakout above the 52-week high look good.
I found an answer to a previous question I had, when I was wondering if selling a stock in the morning then buying it back in the afternoon was considered a day trade. The answer was in a document located at nyse.com
The amendments redefine the term "day trading" to treat the sale of an existing position held from the previous day as a liquidation, and the subsequent repurchase of that position as the establishment of a new position not subject to day trading margin requirements.
Related Stocks: WEL
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Update
(Wed, 30 Jul 2008 13:07:08)
The current market rally is uncomfortable for me to watch. I don't see any reason for it other than investors are tired of having money on the sidelines. Oil is up again, financials are not in a good state, housing stinks -- has anything changed other than the fear level easing irrationally?
I'm happily sitting on the sidelines with my popcorn, watching the market perform a grand show.
APWR almost tempted me back in, but the last few times the price has slid all the way to the close, the next day started out with a big drop. The chance of a drop and a continued slide beginning first thing tomorrow morning (assuming no positive news) is somewhat higher than 50%. That would mean a price in the 24s, and possibly the 23s again.
I attempted to get in on CNEX dropping 40% in a matter of hours (another Tim Sykes pick) but wasn't able to borrow shares.
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Turbo Boost
(Tue, 29 Jul 2008 08:07:27)
Market sell-offs continue to add turbo-boosts to the APWR downturns, accelerating the price swings, forcing the hand of large sellers, and making better buying opportunities. I've been adding all the way down the slide again.
After the slide hit bottom this morning I exited at the 1st top of the recovery in the afternoon. Once again most likely missing part of a larger rise, but resulting in another record high portfolio dollar value!
A VISN trade on a breakout yesterday went badly, but I had a stop so took just a small hit.
I now have 2 day trades this week so have to be careful of the pattern day trading limit.
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Carpool Chapter 3
(Sun, 27 Jul 2008 17:07:10)
This is the continuing story of my carpool with Fritz and Sara.
Fritz tells frequent stories, and on at least 5 occasions they have been about going postal. The first story was told after just a few weeks of Fritz being on the job and in our carpool, and began with Fritz describing a previous job.
"I was being harassed by a hot woman manager at the university where I worked, and I complained to Human Resources. They turned it around and made ME look like the bad guy, then fired me. When I went back to get my personal stuff, this guy wouldn't give it to me, and I said 'You really shouldn't fire people like this, because someone is going to come back and shoot the place up'. The guy's eyes got really wide, then a few minutes later a security guard showed up with his hand on his Taser and walked me out."
Sara and I said something like "You really said that to him?".
Fritz replied, "Yeah, and I thought about it a few times too."
Me: "Thought about shooting the place up?"
Fritz: "Yeah, they really shouldn't fire people like that."
Yet another reason to up my life insurance. :O
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Update
(Fri, 25 Jul 2008 07:07:36)
How my return increased 1% yesterday on my Covestor chart is a mystery, since I didn't have any holdings. I'm assuming a calculation adjustment of some sort must have been made.
Although Covestor doesn't track cash positions, my chart is not far from reality -- the chart says 88% while my actual return is closer to 75%.
Perry at Covestor called me this morning and we had a nice chat about the website. I don't know any other site that treats its visitors so well -- customer service, tech support, all the way to the president -- the user experience has been special, and I really wish the best for Covestor.
*Edit for end of day: Back into APWR. News brings in tons of buyers, then over the next few days they all get shaken by the wild price swings causing the price to drift down until the next news. I feel badly for the new investors every time it happens, but I continue to bank on it. Anyone willing to play the short side of this as well could really make a lot of money, although predicting the downside seems too difficult and scary to me for a company like this that in my view could jump to new heights at any time.
Another Tim Sykes opportunity missed -- I promised myself I would be more prepared for opportunities, but again missed an easy one as I wasn't watching the breakout of ZYXI this morning. Another quick 5 to 7% opportunity evaporated.
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Stimulus-Mart Revisited
(Thu, 24 Jul 2008 07:07:24)
Important to note: 2 million minimum-wage U.S. workers get a 10% raise today, and much of the raise will be spent at Wal-Mart.
Wal-Mart is a strong lobbyist for an increased minimum wage because that raise will be spent on the type of products Wal-Mart sells. Wal-Mart workers make more than the minimum wage anyway, so an increase doesn't add to their expenses, but does add significantly to revenue. Today many workers get that raise, and this will be important to Wal-Mart's bottom-line for the next several years.
Related Stocks: WMT
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Pre-Orbital
(Wed, 23 Jul 2008 11:07:09)
If you know my history with APWR, you know I sell when a big big day comes along. I didn't expect it to come the day after I predicted it!
Most likely I will miss a piece of an even larger rise, but I am satisfied with my current state -- the largest dollar gain for a single sale, and a new record portfolio value.
Related Stocks: APWR
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Pre-launch countdown
(Tue, 22 Jul 2008 13:07:26)
The suspense is building once again in APWR. It feels primed for an upward run, likely to be triggered by news of the earnings release date, or another big contract or LOI, or another analyst initiating coverage with a price target of about $30.
If that doesn't happen for another week or two, I will continue to be bored holding long. I feel like I am sitting on a sick amount of soon-to-be-realized profit. The current price is a great entry point, in my opinion.
Related Stocks: APWR
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Slow Days
(Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:07:25)
Holding long for a week sure is boring. Added more APWR on another drop in the price. LBAS position dropped as I was not comfortable with how incredibly slow and illiquid that stock is. Of course today it rises after I sell it, proving once again that new ways for me to fail still exist.
My options trading friend is happy with his AAPL short, and is hoping Apple lowers guidance for the future, then will bail on that position near the end of this week.
He thinks the APWR chart is looking like a bullish ascending wedge. Earnings should be about 3 weeks from now at my estimation, based on what was said during the last earnings conference call, so we should see some nice price action soon. The current action continues to be unpredictable so I am not playing it like I once was -- and may never again.
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Update
(Thu, 17 Jul 2008 13:07:32)
Accumulating more APWR on dips.
Added LBAS, one on Tim Sykes' watch list, just for fun. We'll see if I can pull anything out of it before Tim shorts it. I also made a bid of $3.01 on UBHI, another of Tim's watches, after it broke $3 this morning. After chasing the ask price for a bit, I gave up, then watched the price spike to $3.25. There's no end to the way I can mess trades up.
I'm having too much fun -- maybe a savage kick in the wallet will rein me in.
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Boingy
(Tue, 15 Jul 2008 08:07:04)
APWR is not predictable the last two days, so I've been holding long through the boingy boingy boingy.
Yesterday I messed up another Tim Sykes trade on IDAE. Fortunately I made an equal amount on IDAE in another account, $10.04 ahead overall. Of course then the stock ran another 10% up after I sold.
Today yet another Tim Sykes trade was messed up -- I missed the early entry point on MNLU, then later tried to get in on the afternoon pop and my broker didn't allow the trade online and I didn't have enough time to call in, so I missed MNLU twice.
I'm starting to get extremely annoyed with the mistakes I have made, missing 5% on CNEH, 15% on IDAE and 12% on MNLU. The best I can do is document the mistakes and not make them again. One thing I can do for sure is be better prepared before market open. I have also learned of a few restrictions on OTC stocks that have gotten in the way of trades that I am now prepared to work around.
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Stellar Company With a Trading Opportunity
(Sat, 12 Jul 2008 05:07:49)
I won't repeat APWR's financials since that info is easily accessed in many places, but I would like to summarize by saying this company has been trading on earnings from its core business of creating distributed power generation, and not on the future earnings from sales of wind turbines, which begins this current quarter (Q3) and will significantly add to earnings in 2009.
China and other Eastern countries are making a serious strong commitment to wind power, and APWR will be selling large quantities of premium wind turbines designed by a top German engineering company. T. Boone Pickens is betting the farm on wind, and he is smarter than me, so I feel confident in the future of the wind industry. Check out the Pickens Plan, an alternative energy plan to help wean the U.S. from foreign oil. About halfway through the pickensplan.com home page video, a vitally important global wind map is displayed. Close attention should be paid to this map, as it clearly shows the U.S. as the #1 wind resource on the planet, but just as importantly, shows India and China as the #2 wind resource. APWR is perfectly positioned to supply this demand in the East. Also listen carefully to the size of the financial numbers T. Boone Pickens is throwing around. Hundreds of billions of dollars per year, trillions of dollars per decade are at stake.
APWR has a rock-solid financial foundation with 35% annual earnings growth prospects, pointed out by an increasing number of fans, including Fool.com, Zacks.com premium investment services, Roth, and Jim Cramer. This company is real.
That being said, I found a trading opportunity cavorting in the noise of APWR daily trading. It seems obvious to me, but it must not be obvious because I have never seen anyone else comment on this. The opportunity is this: APWR buyers buy in the early morning and late afternoon, and APWR sellers sell in the time between, creating a 5% to 10% price swing three out of every four days. Remarkably predictable, this price swing can generate gains even when the APWR closing price has gone down from the previous day, without short selling. More than a temporary pattern, the predictability has continued week after week, month after month.
Whether holding long or taking advantage of short term action, APWR will create outperforming returns for many years.
Related Stocks: APWR
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Groundhog Day
(Fri, 11 Jul 2008 10:07:57)
Is the same day repeating over and over in an endless cycle like the movie Groundhog Day? I waited until after the APWR spike in the morning expecting a solid retreat. The overall market began selling off just as my friend predicted, which I expected to add even more to the APWR retreat, so a good possibility of a 10%+ slide existed. Even with that expectation, I was surprised after lunch to see 2 bids had been executed, one at 7% off the morning high, and one at 11% off the morning high. APWR then immediately began the afternoon recovery, perfectly adhering to the pattern. If Monday is another Groundhog Day, I could have yet another decent profit.
Notice that a few days ago the price was 20 and today it was 29, but the price difference doesn't affect my thinking in any way. I don't care about what the price was a few days ago, as past prices just don't matter to this pattern. I have no problem doing the same thing at 20, 30, or 40 if the buying and selling stays predictable.
Just as I commented on the previous post, APWR can have you down 10% in a matter of hours, which is very nerve-wracking, especially for the new investors that found APWR on a recommendation list and dreamed of green energy riches, only to have the dream shattered in the time it takes to watch an episode of Lost. Either buy and hold for the long term, or if short term leave yourself room to average down. As I noted in the past, my return in APWR is not much better than if I would have just held long at my original purchase price of $13.07. Thanks go to TIm Sykes for putting this stock on my radar in the first place.
Related Stocks: APWR
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Return to Normal
(Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:07:52)
Incredibly, APWR returned to the normal pattern today with lower volume, but I was wary after the extraordinary gains APWR had the last two days, and didn't participate. Ultra short term trading is tiring and I make mistakes when I'm tired, plus I would prefer a great deal rather than just a good deal. The morning retreat was 5% which used to be typical, but now I am expecting as much as a 12% retreat prolonged over more than just the morning similar to what happened several days during the last two weeks.
My options trading friend is suggesting we will be seeing possibly another further 5% selloff in the overall market over the next week, plus he is betting on AAPL going down. After the selloff he is planning to bet on the upside for shipping transportation, coal, and fertilizer.
Related Stocks: APWR
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Rocket
(Wed, 09 Jul 2008 10:07:36)
The stars aligned for APWR, although I only caught half of the huge morning rise. Missing pieces of large fast rises is part of the nature of the pattern I have been playing, so I can't be disappointed. 17% gain in less than 24 hours is far beyond anything I have harvested to date, and that one day gain is more than triple my original goal of exceeding 5% annually. At a 5% annual return, my account would have taken 8 years to get to where it is after 6 months. My account money was originally in a U.S. savings bond with a 4.4% return, which would have taken 10 years to reach the same value.
Bargains are still everywhere, and I'm particularly fond of Amazon, although I hesitate to buy retailers in the current questionable retail environment. In a past post I speculated that Wal-Mart would get a large boost from the economic stimulus checks, but I have revised that thinking after speaking with a night manager at a Super Wal-Mart. She informed me that the stimulus checks in fact are not adding significantly to sales. Many Wal-Mart customers get only the minimum stimulus check of $300, and sales have not been boosted as I was imagining. The real boost to sales for the local Wal-Mart was the Onieda tribe members receiving a large one-time lump sum payment funded by casino earnings. Wal-Mart sold out of everything, and had to import goods from other Wal-Marts in the area. I'm not sure what kind of statement that is for our society, when good retail times depend on casinos.
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Update
(Tue, 08 Jul 2008 13:07:23)
APWR -- Like a broken record, sold on morning spike (less than 1% profit), and bought on dip later in the day for a fantastic price. It proved to be fantastic in the afternoon as APWR shot up in a violent way leaving me 11% ahead at the close, which was the largest one day gain yet.
Tomorrow I will attempt to get a good morning spike sell price once again. I think some short covers will exaggerate the spike.
If anyone is reading this and thinking of buying APWR, here are a few tips -- buy between 10:00 AM and noon, Eastern time, on a dip in the price. For whatever reason, sellers dump large blocks during that time and not many buyers are around. Always use a limit order -- market price will cost you an extra half a percent sometimes. It helps to set the limit a few cents higher than an even 25 cent increment, like if you want to buy at 23.00, set the limit around 23.03 -- it'll cost a few cents but then you avoid the large support that sometimes sits at the even numbers, never quite reaching your price. Do not buy from 9:30 to 10:00 AM Eastern time, that is by far the worst time to buy, as the price usually dives 3% to 10% within a few hours almost every day.
Related Stocks: APWR
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Update
(Mon, 07 Jul 2008 13:07:04)
APWR -- Morning sell on spike pulled in another decent 2% profit. Buys again on severe dips resulted in a great averaged price carried forward. This morning I was looking for much more than my usual 0.35 over the previous days' closing price because of the unique selloff on Wed and Thurs, and I did get much more.
Several days now I have made a profit being long while the price is going down day-to-day. It can be done! APWR is now 34% off its high while I am off less than 1%, which is a big improvement over last week's position which I thought was great.
Related Stocks: APWR
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Happy Independence Day
(Wed, 02 Jul 2008 07:07:26)
APWR -- pattern pulled in slightly less than 2% profit. Buying again today on a dip looks promising.
The market has so many tempting bargains right now. My options-trading friend feels sellers will outnumber buyers before the holiday, so holding off on purchasing until tomorrow may be prudent.
*Edit for after hours -- two bids hit in the afternoon, so I'm back in APWR at a much better price than the last time. The suspense is building. APWR is now off 29% from its high, while I am down about 2.5% from my high as of market close with plenty of room to accumulate if needed -- which is a significantly better position than I was in a few days ago when APWR had dropped 6% under my averaged price and I had run out of adding ability.
I feel for the investors of the funds that had large APWR sell orders today, some as much as 50K shares, because those fund managers really blew it, selling during a low-volume holiday week in a low-float stock in a market downturn with a clear lack of buyers. That is a setup for a perfectly abysmal sale price.
Related Stocks: APWR
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Update
(Mon, 30 Jun 2008 14:06:34)
It's too hard for me to resist taking profits on a large bounce -- so I'm out of APWR once again with the bottom-line dollar value of my portfolio at an all-time high. Today's pattern was the classic pattern I have been playing.
I attempted to get in on Tim Sykes call on CNEH -- but had an issue with my buy order and no time at market open to get it resolved, so missed out. Potentially could have been a 5%+ gain in 1/2 hour.
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House of Horrors
(Sat, 28 Jun 2008 09:06:35)
The current selloff may be the best opportunity I've ever experienced. With that belief, I continued to add to my APWR holdings during the last two days as the price declined.
Many here say to limit your losses and would not have done what I did, but in my mind it just kept becoming a better opportunity so how could I do anything but buy?
I did have sell orders in for the morning spike predicted by the pattern I've been following. Both should have hit, but I disregarded my previous formula and missed them both. In the past I was just adding $0.35 to the previous days closing price, that that would have resulted in sells on both Thurday and Friday. In reality, I added $0.43 on Thursday and missed the high price by 1 cent. I can't really fathom why I changed the number to +0.43. On Friday I had the order in for + 0.35 then cancelled it, only to see later that the morning high price was 4 cents higher than that. I remember thinking it looked like the price was running up and I didn't want to miss the run. Should have just stuck with +0.35 because that just about guaranteed a good morning sale in the past.
If I would have stuck with +0.35, Thurday and Friday sells would have resulted in a small profit, around 1% gain between the two days, the key point here being that these trades were long, and would have made money with APWR's price going down day to day. I've always thought this pattern could make money even on down days -- just wished I would have pulled it off those 2 days to prove it.
With the continued pattern of accumulating on the dips, my APWR-only portfolio has gone down 5.3% from its high while APWR's price is down 21%. Covestor calculations have me down 10% but actually it is 5.3% -- scaling the size of the investment up at different points of the days must throw the calculations off somehow, or they just can't take that sort of activity into account, sort of like how cash positions aren't tracked.
Next week being a holiday week should make things extra-volatile. I can't predict which way the market will move or if APWR will bounce or slide in the short term. I am prepared to hold through a period of loss. I don't expect APWR to be predictable with the current extraordinary market circumstances.
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The Story Continues
(Wed, 25 Jun 2008 18:06:54)
This is the continuing story of my carpool.
Due to road construction, we had to take a detour to Fritz's house, and as we drove by a Casual Male XL, Fritz said it was a great place to shop, and in fact, "That is where I got this polo shirt." As an investment Casual Male (CMRG) is not doing well and is near the 52-week low, perhaps in part because Fritz only bought one XXL navy blue striped polo, wears it 150 days a year with enchilada and sneeze stains on it (I personally witnessed one of the sneeze wipings), then gives fashion advice like a spokesmodel.
Fritz informed us he was out late drinking the night before and got pulled over on the way home for not turning his headlights on all the way, and passed the field sobriety test the nice officer decided to give him. I need to up my life insurance before it's Fritz's turn to drive again.
Related Stocks: CMRG
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Wind Powered Roller Coaster
(Tue, 24 Jun 2008 10:06:38)
The APWR price is doing what I thought it would after the run it had last week -- more of the same price action, but even more extreme! I thought the new buyers might get upset at the wild price swings, and the Yahoo Finance boards for APWR bear that out -- many buyers concerned by a 10% price drop. That large of a swing is not unusual for this stock, which makes it very uncomfortable to own for the average investor. Setting a stop loss on APWR will guarantee you won't own the shares for long.
Yesterday the pattern only worked halfway, convincing me to buy but not recovering, and today it worked perfectly, for a net 2-day gain of about 2%. If I would have missed yesterday which ended -3.5%, today could have been a 10% day by itself. Thankfully I am trusting in the predictable price action. Morning spike of 1% to 3% (selling opportunity), following by a 4% to 6% drop (buying opportunity), followed by a recovery of some size (could be small or large -- selling opportunity). If it doesn't follow that perfectly, wait for the next day. Most days work, some do not.
News on ACH of disappointing producting and lower earnings really is hurting the price, probably far too much, but I almost never buy hammered down companies if bad news has been announced, so I probably won't get back in this one, although I have seen Alcoa price constantly overcome similar bad news like higher production costs. Looks like it will be a while before aluminum begins acting like other commodities and springs upward. Most likely it will happen within the next year, but I won't tie up money for a year waiting.
Related Stocks: ACH, APWR
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More Carpool Funding
(Sat, 21 Jun 2008 09:06:30)
I have been carpooling to work for the last year with a nice young lady named Sarah*, and the money saved has gone into my investment fund. We get along great. She's sarcastic, enjoys public radio, current events, and long-distance running, all things we have in common, although with the running, she is a true race runner where I gasp and trudge.
Recently we added another carpooler, Fritz*, who has made the drive into a circus on wheels. While I am saving even more gas money to use for investing, Fritz is beginning to concern both me and Sarah with his words and actions.
Sarah was the first to notice that Fritz wore the same navy-blue striped polo shirt 4 days in a row, covered in dandruff and stains. Currently after 18 days of carpooling with Fritz, this shirt has made an appearance 9 times. Fritz smells strongly of processed meat.
More to come.
*Names changed
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Fire sale
(Fri, 20 Jun 2008 11:06:21)
I had to buy something during this sell-off or risk not following my own slogan of buying into fear, so I picked up AMZN. Usually AMZN is very volitile during big overall market selloffs, but has been holding up well this time, which to me is a great sign -- I voted AMZN most likely to outperform the market when it rebounds.
2 days in a row now I have missed buying APWR, once because I was looking for too large of a dip, and the 2nd time because the dip happened too fast and I didn't have my order in. I really should have gotten at least one of these 5% opportunities -- they were there for the taking, following the same pattern both times. I basically don't care at all what happens to the price later in the day, as only the morning price action is predictable.
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Perfect pattern
(Thu, 19 Jun 2008 07:06:05)
This was the best APWR pattern play yet, pulling 5.15% out in one day, and since I had more money committed to it, by far the biggest one-trade gain for me so far. The previous pattern still works! And because of the higher volume, it is more exaggerated allowing me to gain a larger spread of prices.
I decided to sell the loss I had on ACH and had plenty of gain left over, but because of the way Covestor calculates gains, it may not reflect that on my chart. I'll have to wait for tomorrow to see how it works out in the Covestor calculations. In dollars, my APWR gain today was 6 times greater than my ACH loss!
Related Stocks: APWR
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Maybe I should be trading options
(Wed, 18 Jun 2008 17:06:54)
My friend the options trader has been right more often than not, and I am impressed with how he can predict overall market trends more than half the time, which is profitable for him. I have no chart reading skills and sadly no psychic abilities, and most disappointing of all, no way to turn back time, so I will just take his advice and not try to pretend I can predict which way the market is going to move.
I can however try to predict which way APWR is going to move, and because the daily price and volume action followed the pattern I was playing weeks ago, I calculate about an 80% chance of at least a 2% move upward at open tomorrow. I'll give it a 50% chance of a move upward of 4% or more. Seeing how it has had several days of gains hitting closer to 10%, that is not out of the question either. I feel APWR still has a lot of upward pressure left to release, especially with record oil prices making alternative energy extra extra hot, and APWR about to start cranking out giant wind turbines.
I was really surprised PFE couldn't hold its gain today on the news of the Lipitor deal. I thought the first sign of good news would be great upward momentum for this stock, helping it to return to $20 and higher. Apparently we won't be seeing that until the overall market makes a bull run and the drug sector comes back. As the weeks tick off closer to the next dividend date, no way can this stock stay below $18 with the kind of payout it has.
Also in the drug sector, my old employer MCK is looking attractive yet again, nearing the price range I was stalking months ago -- a price over 20% lower than their pre-scandal price 10 years past!
Related Stocks: APWR, PFE
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Update
(Tue, 17 Jun 2008 16:06:07)
WOW APWR is breaking out big time. I don't think the new owners of this stock will be prepared for the volume and price action that will inevitably return to normal after this surge. The big swings in daily price are really going to cause a lot of anxiety. If it does settle back to its previous pattern I will be all over it. I have no idea how to play this stock in its current state.
For the next two weeks I will not have much time to monitor the market, so not sure if I will add any additional holdings before the 4th of July.
More expectations of rising aluminum prices are hitting the news, but not much is happening with aluminum stock prices. Might be a while before that happens.
My options trading friend is expecting a steep drop in the overall market once again, and mentioned this Friday is the day many types of options expire, so perhaps we will see some wild market action by the end of this week.
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Update
(Mon, 16 Jun 2008 12:06:51)
APWR -- I decided to take profits with the big spike up today. I missed the final spike later but I have no problem getting in again in the future on any dip. Yes I have missed some opportunities with this one but gained more than I ever expected so no regrets. More good news for APWR -- it is going to be added to the Russel 3000 on June 27th.
ACH -- Position reduced. The bounce I was expecting is taking too long. I still expect it but am not going to tie up so much capital short term.
For the future, I am going to wait for extra-good deals, and more APWR pattern plays. For now my definition of an extra-good deal is "Hey that stock looks like a great deal!", then have the stock drop 5% or more, then buy it. Sort of a gut-feel thing -- no charts, no numbers to plug into a calculator. I take a lot of info into consideration including the opinions of Covestor members. Not very methodical, but maybe it will eventually develop into a formula.
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Happy Father's Day
(Sat, 14 Jun 2008 18:06:53)
Happy father's day to all of the dads out there. I lost my dad last year, miss him, and hope everyone goes out of their way to remember and appreciate Dad!
22 years ago, my dad invested money in a friend's brother's company that was developing a medical imaging machine that was really supposed to be revolutionary and very profitable. The first shipment of parts arrived broken and unusable, sending the company into bankruptcy. Lesson learned -- it's great to get in on the ground floor but wait until the company at least proves it can sell something.
Half of my APWR holdings were for short term pattern play like I was doing weeks ago -- and I was able to milk 4% out of it Friday. The morning dip was not steep enough for my pattern to re-add, so I'll wait for Monday and try again for the dip that usually happens between 11 and 1 EDT. The rest I'm holding long. The stock has a chance once again of hitting 25 on Monday for the first time.
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Feeding Frenzy
(Thu, 12 Jun 2008 12:06:53)
Today I put in what I thought was a low-ball bid on APWR, nearly 5% off the day's high, and it hit in the afternoon. I feel like a shark, having doubled up on both ACH and APWR on shares thrown overboard by investors shell-shocked by the overall market sell-off.
More possible good news for APWR -- some ETFs based on wind energy companies are being formed (PowerShares and another that I can't recall), and APWR has a chance of being included. This news recently hit the wires!
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Shifting
(Wed, 11 Jun 2008 11:06:01)
My reasoning for shifting my PFE investment to ACH is as simple as an extra 5% opportunity that presented itself with ACH today. ACH sank with Alcoa's downgrade, added onto the overall market downturn, and the possibility for a sizable rebound is too good to miss.
I still believe PFE is attractive for income and equity gain over the next year, but I'm no longer happy with the thought of an annual 20% return.
And to think, my original goal was surpassing the return on an online savings account, which was approximately 4% (annual) when my Covestor account started! I've had single day returns better than that so far.
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Quick on the Trigger
(Tue, 10 Jun 2008 14:06:33)
As usual, I don't wait long enough for the panic to set in fully, and buy too soon, but I'm not too disappointed in the losses the last few days. I feel my portfolio is in a great position at the moment and won't think about changing it. I've got a solid income stock in a depressed sector, a hot alternative energy company with an incredible future, and a materials company producing a material that many are predicting will jump in price 80% by early 2009.
Friday I mentioned that APWR was primed for analysts to jump on board, and today Roth initiated as a Buy with a price target of $30. Good guess, me! Pat pat pat.
My main source of joy today is that I did not succumb to the panic. That really does take discipline that I am not always sure I have developed well enough. Blogging definitely helps with the discipline and I highly encourage others to do it, just for themselves! So far so good.
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Bargains
(Fri, 06 Jun 2008 07:06:58)
Picked up PFE during the overall market panic sell this morning. It was already looking attractive to me, and the current situation put it over the edge. Further drop is expected but I didn't want to miss out if this is the end of the correction.
If I had more capital I would double my ACH position. I'm thinking about moving in more capital to take advantage of opportunities like this. General market fear-driven selling is my favorite time to shop.
We will not have volitile market opportunities like this all the time -- must take advantage!
APWR came close to 25 again at open, then some wild bounces followed. I'm willing to wait now. Only a matter of time before analysts and institutions jump on board and I really don't want to miss a 5 bagger.
*Edit for near end-of-day -- I used margin to double both ACH and PFE, with plans to cover the margin with new capital in the next few days. I feel the bargain hunting was successful and am prepared to hold indefinitely.
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Grounded
(Thu, 05 Jun 2008 08:06:17)
I was due for a down day, although I didn't think buying would dry up quite as much as it did for APWR. The previous pattern I was playing would have made money rather than suffering through a slow period. The size of the position has been reduced, and I'm holding the rest through earnings!
Added ACH as the price looks good again, and aluminum has had some good press lately. The increase use in car manufacturing looks especially promising.
PFE is looking super-attractive now. Very tempting. Their future in oncology sounds very promising.
Related Stocks: ACH, APWR, PFE
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Update
(Tue, 03 Jun 2008 13:06:41)
Out of STLD -- very nice short term 6% gain. I thought about getting back in during a later 5% drop when the entire market tanked, but didn't have time to think it out.
APWR -- After all of the in and out trading, I'm having a hard time holding, but somehow I've managed. 52 week high today and new high closing price, and high volume for this stock. I still think 25 will be hit this week before earnings are announced on Friday -- today came within $0.50 of hitting the mark! Tomorrow I expect the price to be in the 24.20 to 24.40 range at or soon after the open.
Related Stocks: APWR, STLD
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Stimulus-Mart
(Mon, 02 Jun 2008 07:06:48)
I avoid a nearby intersection on the way home from work, because Super Wal-Mart traffic makes a good sized traffic jam. Lately it has been extra extra bad, and I have renamed the company Stimulus-Mart.
The next quarters are going to be blockbuster for Stimulus-Mart, thanks to the stimulus checks. I got my $2400 check on Saturday, and I'm thinking the smartest thing to do with it would be to buy Stimulas-Mart stock.
APWR -- If I was following my pattern, the sell order at open would have executed at the open price of 23.30. I decided to stay long this week.
*Edit for after-hours -- APWR activity was unusual today, without the usual significant morning price dip, and if the morning price spikes as it has almost every day for the last month, we could be seeing a new 52-week high early tomorrow.
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Update
(Fri, 30 May 2008 10:05:09)
Babysitting today's APWR price rather than playing the same pattern, I got back in but not at the ideal price. $1.00 less than the morning high price would have hit perfectly near the bottom of the dip, as usual. I got in at $0.77 less than the morning high price. The volume has increased a lot and I expect early next week that APWR will have a run that will push the price over $25.
Whether earnings exceed expectations or not, the price will run up just from speculation, so I confidently predict a 10% opportunity within a very short time. I do not believe my pattern will work next week due to volume changes and because of earnings week, and don't plan to sell at market open on Monday, unless I get the 10% immediately. I arrived at the 10% figure by calculating what the "pattern" says the price will be at Monday open (23.50 to 23.80) then adding a premium on top for positive earnings speculation and more large buy orders.
STLD had a pleasant jump today. Analysts are generally "Hold" on this stock. My "Buy" turned out to be better advice, at least for one day :)
Related Stocks: APWR, STLD
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Final Chapter?
(Thu, 29 May 2008 11:05:07)
Day 4 of the APWR pattern ended with a whimper, eeking out only 1.5% gain. My initial sell order didn't sell within the first 1/2 hour so I sold out, only to see the price and volume begin a 6% climb 20 minutes later. This day did not follow the pattern, but like most days that don't, it doesn't result in a loss, just less profit.
I did put a buy order in 1.00 less than the morning high price, but the price and volume are acting so differently, I am not expecting to get it. The price did dip about 0.85 so far, so that is fairly close. Since the pattern is not the same, I am not overly interested in buying, although I would like to have a position as the earnings date gets closer next week.
STLD added to holdings, after discussions with my options trading friend. DRYS and PFE still on my radar. DRYS price goes up and down in waves that look like the waves on which their ships travel, enough to make me motion-sick. Take a look at the PFE dividend payout. The health care segment will rebound, and the baby boomers will need a lot of meds -- PFE has a lot of potential as an income stock and equity gainer.
Related Stocks: APWR, PFE, STLD
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APWR Spam
(Wed, 28 May 2008 11:05:50)
This may seem like Spam, but I feel the need to continue to point out this pattern, since it could have been milked for 5% per day for the last 3 days (and now halfway to 4 days)!
Yesterday's hypothetical sell price of 22.71 would have executed soon after open. The morning high price then hit 22.95, so my target buy price was around 21.95 for the morning dip that was likely to follow. Sure enough the 5% dip happened and if I wasn't so greedy waiting for it to fall further I would have had 21.75, but settled for 22.00 later in the morning, close to my target of 21.95. The number of changes to my order price was comical as I chased the bid and ask.
I expect the price to rise 5% again by tomorrow morning.
*Edit for after-hours -- target sell price for tomorrow at the open is today's close 22.42, plus 0.35 = 22.77 for a gain of 3.5% assuming the price hits that mark within the first 1/2 hour of trading. Why is this pattern working? I'm not sure, but 4 days in a row is wickedly fun! In the last month this pattern has repeated a dozen times, and I have a feeling institutional accumulation is the root of the volume fueling the pattern, and there's plenty of short-sellers playing this the other way, making their cut of the downward moves.
Related Stocks: APWR
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Pattern Pays Off Again
(Tue, 27 May 2008 07:05:36)
Another 6% gain from APWR from the morning open spike. 21.50 buy, 22.80 sell. The price then dropped 1.05 (5%), but I didn't re-enter. If I was following the pattern I had predicted, I would have put in a buy order for about 1.00 less then the morning high price and would have gotten back in. My account needs a breather though and I don't want to hit the day trading limit.
*Edit for later in the day -- this is the 3rd day the pattern has matched exactly what I predicted. Please tell me someone else is making 5% per day on this stock. I purposely skipped today's buy-in but would have been in if not for being uncomfortable flirting with the day-trading limits, and honestly I don't even know if my trades qualify since I usually hold overnight, but am still uncomfortable with what seem like vague rules to me. Had I followed the pattern yet again, my buy price would have been 21.80 (the price dipped to 21.27 at the low), and my sell price for tomorrow morning would have been today's close price + 0.35 (22.36 + 0.35 = 22.71).
Related Stocks: APWR
